Surprised professionals

This election cycle in the United States has been a very strange one! As a data expert for President Obama’s re-election campaign, I paid a lot of attention to the Republican primaries in 2012. So I thought I had enough knowledge and instincts to predict who would win on the Republican side this time around. But Donald Trump took all of us political professionals by surprise.

In retrospect, we can now see why Trump has done well in the Republican primary. Indeed, there are several compelling explanations. Long-simmering racial resentment among some white people, particularly those with less education and lower incomes and especially those who live in diverse-but-segregated regions, is an undeniable factor.

Basic Instincts, reloaded

Donald Trump's brand of racial hatred, xenophobia, and belligerence appeals directly to their basic instincts. Disaffected whites have a growing sense that political and financial elites are not serving their interest, which is generally correct - but Trump's message helps them redirect this rage toward immigrants, minorities, and the outside world.

Likewise, there is compelling research about people whose psychological profile fits the authoritarian model. These people, who certainly overlap with the groups I mentioned above, look for a strongman during times of uncertainty and anxiety. For reasons I personally find inexplicable, these people see Donald Trump's wealth and say-anything nature as proof that he is a strong leader.

Usually, the best contender gets nominated

America's two-party system has made it difficult for figures like Trump to be serious contenders. To their credit, Republicans have usually nominated the person who has the strongest chance to beat the Democrat in the general election. Even though we were confident that we could win in 2012, we still
considered Romney the toughest of the Republicans who ran that year. This year, however, there are strong indications that Trump is one of the worst prospects Republicans could put forward (and Ted Cruz is hardly better).

If we had a multi-party system, as you do in Europe, we would see someone like Trump forming a nativist party not unlike some of your right-wing parties. Instead, what will probably happen is that Trump will lose and the Republican party will have a brief period of chaos, followed by a period of rebuilding. Unfortunately, we will all have to witness a lot of ugly rhetoric and circus-like campaigning before that happens.

Hope

To end on a more hopeful note, let me bring in some math. Only a tiny fraction of Americans are currently rallying around Trump. The Republican party represents a little less than half of the American electorate, and the vast majority of them do not bother to vote in the primary. Among the
ones that do, not even half of them have voted for Trump. In a country of over 300 million citizens, only about 7.5 million of them have voted for Trump so far.

So please, do not be aghast at America - not yet, anyway. Trump will get the nomination, and he will win the votes of sizable minority of Americans. But in the end, I feel quite certain that America will make the correct decision and deliver a devastating defeat to Donald Trump.

*Amelia Showalter is a data expert and political consultant who served as Director of Digital Analytics on the 2012 Obama campaign. She lives in Washington, DC, and tweets at @ameliashowalter